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mudd1

Taking bets now, what will be the top 3?

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Based on thread activity numbers, I'd say:

Steed

What could go wrong

Dear Leader

That's the top 3 by views. The top 3 by posts are:

Derelict

Dear Leader

What Could Go Wrong

So Derelict instead of Steed. But both metrics could be susceptible to how unclear the pitch was or generally how much there is to discuss about this game. All this is reading tea leaves really but a better indicator might be how often people click on a thread when there's a new post. That could be approximated by looking at the views per post. The top 3 then are:

Steed

ExtraTerrarium

What Could Go Wrong

Steed reappears, Dear Leader and Derelict both are out but surprise appearance ExtraTerrarium shows up. Well, we'll see.

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I feel like Steed will edge out Derelict, but that What Could Go Wrong and Dear Leader are pretty secure. Could be wrong, but I just think Steed has a little bit more of the sort of think people want from a Double Fine game, even though I love the idea of Derelict. There's only 15,000 or so people voting, and that's going to be mostly Double Fine fans and Pen Ward fans, and I think both of those on balance will be more into something like Steed than Derelict.

I can't imagine a world where Dear Leader doesn't Ace this, and What Could Go Wrong has the twin advantages (for this demographic) of being an adventure game and having a cool, easy to define twist on the genre (without sounding too gimmicky, which I think is what will ultimately harm Eras of Adventure)

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That said, I still think Mnemonic might steal a place through stealthy ninja skills. It's coming up a lot on Twitter, still.

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Twitter posts about votes since the shortlist started (counted these by hand so might have made a few errors, but this is about right)

Dear Leader: 26

What Could Go Wrong: 21

Mnemonic: 20

Steed: 14

Ether 14

Eras of Adventure: 12

Breach: 11

Derelict: 10

Extraterrarium: 9

Projext Xing: 5

So if this is at all representative, Dear Leader is no surprise and What Could Go Wrong also unsurprising but Mnemonic may indeed be in with a chance above Steed and Derelict might not be doing so well as imagined.

One potential thing skewing the numbers is that while most of these are from people who posted up all 3 of their votes, some are from people who only posted 1 or 2. So if one is commonly voted for but not commonly first choice (i.e. the one someone would tweet about) then votes for that might be concealed. Derelict, for example, could be in this position. But one thing's for sure, there's a whole lot of voting for Dear Leader, What Could Go Wrong and Mnemonic.

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Man, this tread is bumming me out big time.

Ditto, the project I want the most is Project 行, but that seems to have a low level of support :(

My number two and three are Dear Leader and Extra Terrarium. I'm 90% sure Dear Leader is going through and I'd guess Steed and What Could Go Wrong as the other two.

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Man, this tread is bumming me out big time.

Ditto, the project I want the most is Project 行, but that seems to have a low level of support :(

My number two and three are Dear Leader and Extra Terrarium. I'm 90% sure Dear Leader is going through and I'd guess Steed and What Could Go Wrong as the other two.

Yep, sadly according to my above stats this is currently the least voted for pitch. I think it should be re-pitched next year, but with a better name and a pitch that gives more of an idea of the style. All of the most top pitches seem to give the player a bit more help in visualising the gameplay or art-style on-screen.

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I'd like to see Dear Leader, Derelict and Steed,

but I'm betting at least one of the winners will be What Could Go Wrong.

At least one of the winners. Maybe even two, or all three.

Because the pitch is strong, and Dave is crazy.

The good kind of crazy, not the Machete-swinging human-skin face-mask kind of crazy.... :D

I'll be honest, I was not interested in that one (WCGW) until I saw the post-finalists interview which I think really sold me on the concept. I'm not really a fan of horror/slasher movies at all, but this sounds pretty interesting.

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I feel like Steed will edge out Derelict, but that What Could Go Wrong and Dear Leader are pretty secure. Could be wrong, but I just think Steed has a little bit more of the sort of think people want from a Double Fine game, even though I love the idea of Derelict. There's only 15,000 or so people voting, and that's going to be mostly Double Fine fans and Pen Ward fans, and I think both of those on balance will be more into something like Steed than Derelict.

I dunno, I really don't care what other games win as long as WCGW, Dear Leader and Eras of Adventure are amongst the top 3 ;)

Seriously though, I don't quite get why so many people love Steed. To me it's in the "kinda nice" category. It's a nice twist to be the horse and not the rider but are there really so many people who enjoy the horse riding part in games? I usually find those parts annoying as hell.

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The good kind of crazy, not the Machete-swinging human-skin face-mask kind of crazy.... :D

What are you talking about? I absolutely count on machetes and human-skin face masks in WCWG :)

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So, the latest Steam count, including votes tweeted since I last counted goes like this:

Dear Leader: 29

What Could Go Wrong: 23

Mnemonic: 23

Ether 18

Eras of Adventure: 16

Steed: 15

Derelict: 14

Breach: 13

Extraterrarium: 12

Projext Xing: 7

Of note: not much change at the top, or at the bottom, but things have bunched right up in the middle, and a lot of places have changed. Ether has managed to jump a couple of places, now sitting at a very healthy 18, 5 away from Mnemonic and What Could Go Wrong, which both now sit at equal 2nd.

At this point it seems impossible that Dear Leader won't get made. It is the most popular game by almost every metric we have.

It also seems very likely that What Could Go Wrong will get made, as these results are pretty consistent with the popularity of the concept on the forums.

I'm going to say that based on these results, though they could be just a statistical fluke, Mnemonic is going to turn out to be the Dark Horse here.

If Mnemonic doesn't make it, based on everything we've got, I'm going to say it's likely that Steed or Ether will take it instead.

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The good kind of crazy, not the Machete-swinging human-skin face-mask kind of crazy.... :D

What are you talking about? I absolutely count on machetes and human-skin face masks in WCWG :)

Well, I meant it in the way of he'll be fun to watch in the documentary and have interesting ideas,

and not murder half the studio and all of 2pp.... But hey, who knows, people might surprise you... ;)

Anyway, I need to remember that even though my most favoritest projects might not get made,

I just rewatched the AF2012 documentary, including the stuff they didn't put out on youtube,

and for that alone this is going to be great fun... Otherwise I'd be a bit bummed, and I don't want that. ;)

At any rate, at the time of this post and according to the timer on the humblebundle page,

voting closes in a little less than seven and a half hours.

To quote that famous english Brad that shakes beer: This is the window of our discount tent.

Not sure what the relevance is to the situation, but you just know it has to be here somewhere.

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My votes are: Mnemonic, Dear Leader, and What Could Go Wrong? I think all three have a shot (and I'm almost sure about Dear Leader and What Could Go Wrong?).

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My votes are set to Steed, What Could Go Wrong and Ether. Andy got me curious with the info from the post reveal interview.

Much like everyone else I expect Dear Leader and What Could Go Wrong and the third one is a bit of a mystery. Based on activity in the forum I didn't expect ExtraTerrarium in the final 10, but there it is (I am happy to see it there). I don't think this will be easy to predict based on forum activity.

I am convinced that much like Hack'n'Slash became a game even if it didn't win AF2012, some of the pitches this year wiill pop up again in the DF pipeline.

EDIT: I say much like everyone else, but noone who followed me agrees. I presume too much. :-D

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I voted for Steed, ExtraTerrarium and Derelict (2/3 of my choices passed to finals, sadly excluding my favourite pick, Headlander).

In general, anyway, I'd prefer if we don't get more than one point and click in the final trio. We already have a lot of footage of Double Fine working with that format and, given the huge versatility of the team, I'd be more interested in some different form of gameplay (Dear Leader is just remotely an adventure but its method of interaction seems not too different either).

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I'd say the most likely trio is:

Dear Leader

Eras of Adventure

Breach

My voites went to

Dear Leader

Eras of Adventure

What Could Go Wrong (propably my favourite)

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My votes went for Steed, Dear Leader and ether.

What do I believe will win? Certainly Steed, I can't see that game not winning.

Probably Dear Leader.

Third one I'm split about - Derelict and Eras of Adventure sounds like they could be good and are popular, but What Could Go Wrong is probably a little more popular.

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We'll know shortly. People seem to be certain about very different games. The only more or less constant guess is Dear Leader. Would be hilarious if that didn't make it. I mean no, it would be a tragedy since I really, really want it to win myself but well you know, just from a "haha, you were all wrong" point of view.

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Dear Leader and What Could Go Wrong seem to be locked.

The third game is difficult to predict.

The one I want the most is ExtraTerrarium, but I'm not optimistic about its chances by now. Project Xing also has little chance of being in the top 3 (I was (pleasantly) surprised to see it make it to the top 10).

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Dear Leader and What Could Go Wrong seem to be locked.

The third game is difficult to predict.

The one I want the most is ExtraTerrarium, but I'm not optimistic about its chances by now. Project Xing also has little chance of being in the top 3 (I was (pleasantly) surprised to see it make it to the top 10).

For what it's worth, I changed my 3rd vote from Breach to ExtraTerrirum. I am also voting Project Xing. So, I probably will have two that won't make it to the next round. That being said, my number 1 choice, Dear Leader, looks like it's locked. So that's nice.

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So apparently Dear Leader, Mnemonic and Steed won

And that was correctly predicted byyyyyyy ... nobody.

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I'm actually quite disappointed. From the 6 pitches that I really liked, 1 got through. :(

I suppose I could be surprised by how good the prototype is for a pitch I didn't like, like I was last year with Hack 'n Slash. Guess we'll find out. So disappointed that these other games won't get made though.

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I'd say the biggest surprise is the absence of BOTH Ages of Adventure and What Could Go Wrong.

What Else Could Go Wrong

Amnesia Fortnight 2015!

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