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nmalinoski

The investment bit

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I didn't get to read the fine print, and I just wanted to make sure: If I want to get backer rewards -and- do the investment thing, do I need to do both separately? Am I correct in understanding that investors will not automatically get backer rewards, and crowdfunding backers will not automatically get a piece of the profits?

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This is correct as far as I understand it.

Investors get a return based on sales, backers claim rewards. Neither is charged unless the funding target is reached.

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I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the inclusion of both crowdfunding and individual investments. Large swaths of backers would already have the game by the time it ships and begins to be openly sold; would that not cause overall sales to suffer, thus causing investment ROIs to suffer?

Basically, would it be a reasonable expectation that most people who want the game will get it via crowdfunding, causing the game to then perform poorly once it's complete and goes on sale? With a lack of sales, those who acted as investors may not break even, which would make such a crowdfunded game an arguably poor investment. (This is, of course, ignoring the exceptions, like those who refuse to crowdfund at all.)

Am I overestimating the number of backers, or underestimating long-term sales? Is this actually way more complicated than it seems to be?

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I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the inclusion of both crowdfunding and individual investments. Large swaths of backers would already have the game by the time it ships and begins to be openly sold; would that not cause overall sales to suffer, thus causing investment ROIs to suffer?

Basically, would it be a reasonable expectation that most people who want the game will get it via crowdfunding, causing the game to then perform poorly once it's complete and goes on sale? With a lack of sales, those who acted as investors may not break even, which would make such a crowdfunded game an arguably poor investment. (This is, of course, ignoring the exceptions, like those who refuse to crowdfund at all.)

Am I overestimating the number of backers, or underestimating long-term sales? Is this actually way more complicated than it seems to be?

Broken Age actually made enough money after the crowdfunding to fund the second part of the game when the game went to early access for general sales, so there is definitely a market for the game after it sells.

Also note that on the Fig campaign page, Tim pointed out that the first Psychonauts sold more copies between five and ten years after its release than it did in its first five years. Word of mouth lead to more sales as more people became aware of the game more than half a decade after it was first released. It was a slow burner, but it did manage to sell more than a million units. The second game does have an advantage over the first in that the brand name is already established, so the sales for this one shouldn't be as slow moving as the first.

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Also not everybody is comfortable "buying" a game before it's finished *insert joke about the current state of released AAA games here* let alone after hearing certain stories about DF's handling of funds in previous crowdfunded projects. It wrong to suggest that the majority of people interested in the game will be spending their money on funding the game.

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According to the figures so far, only about 25k people would have to back the game in order for the target to hit. The break even point estimated is - I don't recall the exact figure - around 750k sales which seems like a pretty reachable target for a highly anticipated sequel. The initial 25k IS lost sales from an investor perspective, but only a small fraction.

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According to the figures so far, only about 25k people would have to back the game in order for the target to hit. The break even point estimated is - I don't recall the exact figure - around 750k sales which seems like a pretty reachable target for a highly anticipated sequel. The initial 25k IS lost sales from an investor perspective, but only a small fraction.

I just checked: 693,638 units sold to break even. Convenient website link: https://www.fig.co/campaigns/psychonauts-2/invest :D

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What KestrelPi said and the crowd funding is available only little bit over month, after that DF has 2.5-3 years to hype the game for others who missed, couldn't backup or are new to the series. Also there are lots and lots of people who doesn't do anykind of pre-ordering/"pre-ordering" and wait for the release.

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Really hard for anyone not in the US to invest though. Even for people in the US, most will be waiting on what sounds like a ruling from the SEC allowing participation from Unaccredited Investors (most people) they are expecting in 2016. I was considering it before realising that the cost of sorting out all the international tax uncertainty would dwarf any expected dividends from a small stake.

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I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the inclusion of both crowdfunding and individual investments. Large swaths of backers would already have the game by the time it ships and begins to be openly sold; would that not cause overall sales to suffer, thus causing investment ROIs to suffer?

Basically, would it be a reasonable expectation that most people who want the game will get it via crowdfunding, causing the game to then perform poorly once it's complete and goes on sale? With a lack of sales, those who acted as investors may not break even, which would make such a crowdfunded game an arguably poor investment. (This is, of course, ignoring the exceptions, like those who refuse to crowdfund at all.)

Am I overestimating the number of backers, or underestimating long-term sales? Is this actually way more complicated than it seems to be?

Investing is gambling, and this is indeed the gamble you're taking. However I think it's reasonable to think they'll exceed their break even (693,638 copies), and the funding is 56% complete with only 10,000 backers... so plenty of room for sales.

The international tax situation is something I'm wondering about, though. I'd love to invest a small stake, but I don't know if it will be worth it as a UK resident.

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