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KestrelPi

The goal itself - 89%!!!

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You're right. It's on exactly 1 million now, which would suggest no accredited investors have been added yet. I would expect a severe slowdown in the rate of pledges now. Perhaps half the speed it was, considering investment comprises half the pledges so far.

I wonder if the accredited investments involve a lot more paperwork before they're actually added to the total. If that's the case, we might also see some substantial amounts coming in over the next few weeks.

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This means it could be several days before we hit 70% unless DF are ready with the next big batch of PR.

I hope they have something soon, it's been a bit quiet from them, after the initial batch of interviews.

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It could just be a coincidence that the investment total is at 1 million, as opposed to it being the cap. The rewards total is only at 1,057,000, so it's possible that the investment total, including accredited investors, could simply be 57,000 less right now.

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Hope we get an update soon. I know it's only been the first few days, but there hasn't been any new info to keep the ball rolling.

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It could just be a coincidence that the investment total is at 1 million, as opposed to it being the cap. The rewards total is only at 1,057,000, so it's possible that the investment total, including accredited investors, could simply be 57,000 less right now.

The investment total is at 1001k now, so I guess there wasn't a 1000k limit.

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Well, there is still that limit (it says so on the unaccredited investor page) but clearly the total so far does include some accredited investment. So we should still expect to see the same pace kept up for a little while.

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I built an google sheets document and keep track of daily totals from 9pm-9pm. I missed the first few days but typed in the values as best as I could remember them as I hadn't built the document yet. I also built it out showing projections and added a little upward swing on the end of the campaign to attempt to project how the campaign is going to end. I did it all in 30-45 minutes so it isn't accurate/using some kind of model etc, it was just for fun. I looked at Kicktraq for the doublefine adventure to get some sort of baseline for it. I will say that backers are way down but the average amount is way up... I am crossing my fingers that the level of backing/investment continues as we have a long way to go before the goal is met.

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I will say that backers are way down...

I would attribute this mostly to the campaign not being on a well-established crowdfunding platform, like Kickstarter or IndieGoGo. Fig is still fairly new.

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Social media tasks as an update? Not a fan really. I hope that's just small part of the planned updates for this.

Did enjoy the first Retrospective though. 2PP always delivers.

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I wonder how much of a jump it'll take after Christmas. I can't be the only who is having to wait till after Christmas due to holiday expenses to back.

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I think fan activities and a good number of 2PP videos should keep the thing nicely afloat. I think their timing here was impeccable. After the initial burst of activity but while the campaign is still pretty fresh.

I'm sure there'll be other stuff as well, but I think so far they've run this campaign very well.

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Oh my god! 66%!

Tim Schafer is growing horns at this rate.

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Regarding the fear of investor "pledges" drying up, this might be mitigated by a future "crowdfunding" effort to plug the gaps in people who ultimately decide not to invest. So say they have a $1m cap on unaccredited investors, they get to $1m pledges on the Fig campaign, and only $500k actually invest. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they reopened bidding for people who missed the original campaign to invest. As in "we always wanted to allow up to $1m of investors, some of the spots we were holding opened up, there's another 30 days to make an investment until we get to $1m."

I'll bet if they did that, they would end up solving a lot of this problem, which I agree with you looks significant at the moment.

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Note that the investor total has now overtaken the backer pledges.

It's only by 27,000, which is negligible, considering that amount is only a drop in the hat of the total of the campaign, which is 2,277,779 right now (investment/backer funding was at about that close with backers leading at one point too, it's been really close since it started). Backer and investment has been about 50-50 throughout the entire campaign.

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Note that the investor total has now overtaken the backer pledges.

It's only by 27,000, which is negligible, considering that amount is only a drop in the hat of the total of the campaign, which is 2,277,779 right now (investment/backer funding was at about that close with backers leading at one point too, it's been really close since it started). Backer and investment has been about 50-50 throughout the entire campaign.

Well, okay, but actually it was over 100k behind a couple of days ago and has been steadily catching up. I think it'll probably continue to overtake. Hypothesis is that investments will be fairly steady but backers will slow down as is usual for crowdfunding. Essentially, investment is the thing that is 'flattening out the curve' for this campaign. Otherwise we would have expected a much sharper slowdown in funds over the last week.

Once the million cap is reached for unaccredited, we should therefore expect quite a significant drop-off (bolstered by occasional large investment). We currently have no way of telling when that might be, but we can estimate based on the minimum investment amount and my # when I signed up, that by this point probably at least half of the current investment is unaccredited.

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I'm pretty positive that it will be funded because a couple of percentage points a day isn't really too bad when you're past the initial boom of the campaign. When you factor in the last minute rush that will happen at the end I can see this being higher than DFA. Doublefine has a negative perception in many communities online that wasn't present when the DFA campaign was launched, so for it be doing close to the same numbers with this change in PR I think it is actually pretty impressive.

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I don't, but I'd be happy to be wrong about that!

I think they get to 80-85 by christmas,then there's a sharp drop followed by a strong drive to completion in the final 2 weeks

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I don't, but I'd be happy to be wrong about that!

I think they get to 80-85 by christmas,then there's a sharp drop followed by a strong drive to completion in the final 2 weeks

I'm a little more optimistic they'll have at least a tiny bit more than 90% by Christmas

Remember, alot of people don't celebrate or otherwise don't have the same year-end financial commitments!

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The progress of the community events is going quite well, by the way.

For the standing orders

*The first Twitter goal (100k followers) has now been hit

*Facebook likes are growing fast, only 1k off now

*Youtube subscribers have hit 45k, which is a goal

*We're about 750 backers off the first backer goal

So we've already got 2 more of them, and we're set to get another 2 in the next couple of days.

For the weekly mission:

* Goal 1 (retweets) has been hit

* Goal 2 (facebook shares) has been smashed

* Goal 3 (Youtube views) is still about 7000 off

* Goal 4 (tumblr reblogs) still seems to be a ways off but difficult to tell how much

When I last checked these about a day ago there was much less progress, so these are clearly working.

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* Goal 4 (tumblr reblogs) still seems to be a ways off but difficult to tell how much

Last I checked it was at 13.8k, so not too far off.

I'm tracking the Psychonauts 2 tag there and from what I can see alot of people are only just finding out about the fig campaign, so the reblog goal will be hit pretty soon as word spreads

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I think that something like 9 to 11 of the standing order goals are easily achievable by the end of the funding and the rest might be tougher. I think we'll maybe hit the top row of rewards but struggle with the bottom. But they might give that dude the audition anyway. A lot will depend on how quickly we can get those Devs Play videos out and how popular they are. Those targets are quite high!

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* Goal 4 (tumblr reblogs) still seems to be a ways off but difficult to tell how much

Last I checked it was at 13.8k, so not too far off.

I'm tracking the Psychonauts 2 tag there and from what I can see alot of people are only just finding out about the fig campaign, so the reblog goal will be hit pretty soon as word spreads

It's surprisingly not that hard to get something with that many notes, you just have to put the word out enough and have the right people see it. From what I can tell the Psychonauts documentary seems to be having more trouble reaching its goal.

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Note that the investor total has now overtaken the backer pledges.

That's actually quite scary. Since the reservation option for unaccredited investors comes with no obligations, I would estimate the amount of people from that pool that end up investing at maybe 10-30%

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