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KestrelPi

The goal itself - 89%!!!

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Something else I hadn't thought of is that this campaign is running right through the holidays for a lot of people.

This could be good and bad since...

1) Maybe some people get bonuses this time of year and can afford extra expenditure

2) But maybe they spend it on other stuff

3) A lot of people will be spending time with family, so we might see a lull in activity for the last couple of weeks of the month.

4) or, because a lot of people will be at home maybe there will be MORE activity.

Right now they need 45% and are funding at about 3% per day. At this rate they'd fund in another couple of weeks, but we know it's unlikely to be sustained. I just wonder how much of that funding needs to be upfront to take advantage before holidays take over people's lives.

I'm guessing in a week they'll be at 70% and in 2 weeks they'll get to 80%-ish. I think they'll have the usual last-couple-of-days of funding upswing, so the real important bit of the campain is what's going to happen in the last two weeks of the year to get people's attention.

Anyone able to dredge up any stats on the effect of december on crowdfunding?

By the way, I totally think this project will make it. I just don't think there's any room for complacency :)

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It's cool if they have seriously learned of their mismanagement and stuff like that but... until then their "addressing" worth a little more than blatant excuses.

I mean, let their actions speak of what they claim. I'm backing them in good and probably foolish faith that they will indeed get the whole game out this time without news disaster about running out of money.

Also, they planned split Broken Age after they realized that they're running out of money. This was not something they really planned in advance but was "emergency measure" as Valve happened conveniently release their Early Access program around that time.

Only time I got actually burned by supporting them was when I got Spacebase DF-9 and expected them to complete it.

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Can we please stay on topic? This is a discussion about progress towards a funding goal, not about what DF did or didn't do with their money on past projects.

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It's cool if they have seriously learned of their mismanagement and stuff like that but... until then their "addressing" worth a little more than blatant excuses.

The thing is though, they already addressed all of issues with the Broken Age kickstarter with the Massive Chalice kickstarter. It had a story planned out from the beginning, had a scope planned out from the start of the project that stayed consistent throughout development, and they were a lot more open about development about the game to non-backers, as well as to those who backed the game.

They made mistakes with their first crowdfunding campaign. Their second campaign successfully addressed all of those mistakes. So there's no reason to doubt that they won't repeat the mistakes from their first crowdfunding campaign with their third, since they already avoided all of those mistakes with their second.

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Can we please stay on topic? This is a discussion about progress towards a funding goal, not about what DF did or didn't do with their money on past projects.

This.

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Right now they need 45% and are funding at about 3% per day. At this rate they'd fund in another couple of weeks, but we know it's unlikely to be sustained. I just wonder how much of that funding needs to be upfront to take advantage before holidays take over people's lives.

[..]

By the way, I totally think this project will make it. I just don't think there's any room for complacency :)

No, I do hope that they have some good updates planned to keep the project in the news. When it slows they still need to keep it at 40k per day, excluding the upswing that always happen.

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There are a lot of positive signs too. If you check DFA, it started out quite fast but slowed down much faster. Right now this is on track to hit 2 million twice as fast as DFA, which I believe did it on the 9th day.

On the other hand, I can't see this one's end of campaign bump being as strong as the over 500k one at the in the last couple of days

of DFA. Dunno why. I just don't see it.

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There's a thread on the Psychonauts Steam forums where a user posts an update every time it climbs 1%. I used the data to chart a time/percentage graph. I think we'll hit 60% in 16 hours and 70% in 3-4 days after that.

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There's a thread on the Psychonauts Steam forums where a user posts an update every time it climbs 1%. I used the data to chart a time/percentage graph. I think we'll hit 60% in 16 hours and 70% in 3-4 days after that.

Might we see that? :)

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There are a lot of positive signs too. If you check DFA, it started out quite fast but slowed down much faster. Right now this is on track to hit 2 million twice as fast as DFA, which I believe did it on the 9th day.

On the other hand, I can't see this one's end of campaign bump being as strong as the over 500k one at the in the last couple of days

of DFA. Dunno why. I just don't see it.

I'm not sure why it is, but it's very typical for Kickstarter campaigns to have large upswings at the end of the campaign. Could be because it's easier to plan your spending money two or less days ahead than a whole month, plus I know some are reluctant to back a campaign until they're sure it will make it. 48 hours before the end is also when reminders go out to those who have set reminders on Kickstarter (Fig doesn't seem to have that functionality though), and those especially eager to see a campaign make it will often raise their pledges a bit at the end to help give the campaign a boost.

The DFA was already funded long before the last couple of days and there were no stretch goals that would have given backers a reason to raise their pledges, so in retrospect it's a bit puzzling that it displayed the same characteristics that have become so dominant for successful campaigns since. People in general were more excited about crowdfunding then though, since it was still a new phenomenon.

What this campaign has going against it is that it's running through the holidays, which can be very costly for many, so they're less likely to have much money to spend on a crowdfunding campaign. For investors it might be a bit different though, especially if they're companies, since they start the new year with new budgets and might have more money to spend at the beginning of the year than they have now.

It's not straight-forward to compare to similar campaigns from earlier years either, since interest in crowdfunding has been waning, and this is a platform that wasn't even around at the same time of year last year. So the tl;dr of it is, I think, that it's impossible to predict what will happen. I feel confident that it will make it, since it's closing in on that crucial 70% barrier, but whether it'll barely make it or go way past its funding goal is anybody's guess.

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There's a thread on the Psychonauts Steam forums where a user posts an update every time it climbs 1%. I used the data to chart a time/percentage graph. I think we'll hit 60% in 16 hours and 70% in 3-4 days after that.

Might we see that? :)

It's here.

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There's a thread on the Psychonauts Steam forums where a user posts an update every time it climbs 1%. I used the data to chart a time/percentage graph. I think we'll hit 60% in 16 hours and 70% in 3-4 days after that.

Might we see that? :)

It's here.

Emarley is gonna register the figtraq domain any time now ;-)

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Emarley is gonna register the figtraq domain any time now ;-)

I hope so. :) It's too bad Kicktraq doesn't support Fig campaigns. If I had thought of it, I would have made a script to at least collect the data.

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I suppose something we haven't talked about yet is how that current backer money breaks down. It's not obvious, but if you click on the little (i) under the progress bar, it breaks it down to Rewards and Investment.

I was a little surprised to see that almost half the money raised so far is from investors. Currently 884k investors compared to 985k rewards.

Part of it is expected, because investors HAVE to pledge at least $500, but even then that's quite a big slice of the pie. Either they've had many people investing a little, or there are a couple of big investors in there making up most of that.

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By the way, Kickstarter has some stats on failure vs % raised.

For failed games kickstarters:

0% raised: 12.3%

1-20% raised: 66.9%

21-40% raised: 11.3%

41-60% raised: 5.3%

61-80% raised: 2.5%

81-99% raised: 1.6%

(might not add up to 100 because of rounding)

This suggests that the magic percentage is actually a lot lower. There are very few failed kickstarters that got over 40% of their funding. Less than 10% of all failures get that far.

Nearly 80% of all failures don't get to 20%. I don't think that's mathematically the same as saying 80% of projects that make it to 20% get funded, but it does suggest that failing beyond 20% is much, much rarer.

The last fig project behaved sort of as predicted in that way. It just scraped in over 20% and failed there. The investment angle will change things a bit, but I think these stats will probably hold just about true for fig, too. For it not to succeed would be a shock, but I still think they should pull out all stops :)

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Looking back at previously projects it seems like the accredited investors tend to spend a fair bit more. The outer wilds had 51K from rewards and 75K from investments for example.

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The Outer Wilds was a bit funny, because that one feels like it had a lot of investor interest and actually probably only hit its goal in the end because it was opening up succesive tiers of investment. The total would jump up, suddenly.

Also, the investors were all accredited at that point, so they were bigger players with lots of money rather than the situation with this one where it's also open up to casual investors.

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Is Psychonauts 2 open to casual investors yet? I was only able to reserve the right to invest right now due to pending SEC approval, does that then count toward the goal?

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Is Psychonauts 2 open to casual investors yet? I was only able to reserve the right to invest right now due to pending SEC approval, does that then count toward the goal?
I'm not sure because I'm not investing. Did you have to put in a figure that you were committed to at the end of the campaign? If so then I'd say that counts.

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Is Psychonauts 2 open to casual investors yet? I was only able to reserve the right to invest right now due to pending SEC approval, does that then count toward the goal?
I'm not sure because I'm not investing. Did you have to put in a figure that you were committed to at the end of the campaign? If so then I'd say that counts.

Currently they're only asking for estimated investments in increments of $500. You select which $500 increment you're looking to invest (Up to $10k, I think?), and that's it; only after the SEC gives its approval (which I'm still not sure is regarding the unaccredited investing in general, or this campaign specifically) will they start asking for specifics and accepting money.

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You're right. I just followed the small print and it says:

We will notify you by email when unaccredited investment for Psychonauts 2 launches, at which point you will have access to the complete terms of the investment and the option to invest. The actual amount you are able to invest may vary from your reservation amount. No money or other consideration is being solicited hereby, and if sent in response, will not be accepted. The “testing-the-waters” information presented is for a potential securities offering pursuant to Regulation A that provides an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. No sales will be made or commitments to purchase accepted until the offering statement is qualified by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), and any such offer may be withdrawn or revoked, without obligation or commitment of any kind, at any time before notice of its acceptance is given after the qualification date. Your indication of interest is non-binding and involves no obligation or commitment of any kind.

or, to clarify:

"This is just a speculative how much you might like to invest kinda thing, nothing binding, that will come later."

So it surely won't be part of the total, which means that the amount so far is from Accredited investors. Not bad! With any luck, a nice chunk of unaccredited investment will follow (up to $1million) which is nothing to do with this initial batch.

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Interesting question! I'm taking one of the rewards, but I'm interested in this new investment process. This is what Fig says when you try to reserve some shares:

No sales will be made or commitments to purchase accepted until the offering statement is qualified by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), and any such offer may be withdrawn or revoked, without obligation or commitment of any kind, at any time before notice of its acceptance is given after the qualification date. Your indication of interest is non-binding and involves no obligation or commitment of any kind.

So it's not a binding agreement at all. Wouldn't it be weird to count the reservations of unaccredited investors into the total amount raised?

Also pretty interesting is the Dropbox folder with legal documents relating to this campaign. Particularly interesting is the section on the risks associated with investing. I didn't realise before browsing through them, but essentially, I think, the success of this project is also tied to the success of Fig itself. I mean, what happens if Fig doesn't appear to be a viable operation in the next three years? Will you see any return of investment in such a case?

(Also, yeah! Psychonauts 2! And another open development project from Double fine!)

EDIT: ninja'd by KestrelPi!

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So.. interesting development...

I just registered my interest in investing $500 because I'm more interested in that now that I know it isn't happening until January, and when I did the total on fig went up by exactly $500

I'm a little concerned that included in the total seems to be money that people are under absolutely no obligation to put down when the time comes, and the site doesn't make this very clear.

It also says that I'm the 663rd person to do this, which means that at least $331,500 and likely more of the investor money so far counting towards the total might end up being actually... not a thing. Huh.

Also there seems to be no way of reversing the decision once you've made it. While I am, indeed, interested in reserving shares in this to confirm in January, my offer - by the small print - is in no sense solid right now so this seems to be highly unusual.

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I agree that feels pretty dodgy to me. You do get included in the project updates list once you have reserved your right, which is kind of nice, but investment money that could potentially be completely unviable (if for some reason no SEC approval is obtained) really shouldn't count to the goal, or at least should be visible as less well secured capital.

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It doesn't even have to be to do with SEC approval. According to the small print, at this stage I've made no pledge, and I will be contacted later to confirm my investment at which point I am free to do so or not.

It's true that backers can also cancel their pledges up to the end date, but at least they don't need to actively do anything and DF still gets paid. In this case, if I decide to do nothing, DF doesn't get my $500, even after the campaign is over. That's quiiite a lot different.

Like, if kickstarter worked by reserving interest and then actually backing at the end, I'd reserve lots of money every month, but I'd only end up confirming a bit of it. It's no good measure of how much money people actually WILL pledge, and more worryingly it's more open to abuse.

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I would likely invest if I knew what it would entail.

Being European and all already probably bars me from investing to it.

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Looks like these things really slow down during weekdays. Hitting 60% looks like it'll take more than a day now, perhaps as much as a day and a half.

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Looks like these things really slow down during weekdays. Hitting 60% looks like it'll take more than a day now, perhaps as much as a day and a half.

Well so far they've pretty much just announced it and haven't done any events, revealed any details, or otherwise pimped it. If you just announce a campaign, it's all exciting at first, but then if you just sit on it and don't do anything else, it screeches to a halt. That's been seen elsewhere. But then if you look at a campaign like the MST3K campaign, that one had a huge explosion at first, but Joel has managed to keep interest and contributions slowly chugging along by doing a lot of things to keep people looking.

You can't just put out the red bucket. You also have to keep ringing the bell. (Possibly too American a cultural reference, but there you go.)

It sounds like they've got some things planned, and I'm curious/excited to see what comes up. There needs to be like a psychonauts twitch event or something to keep engagement up.

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Regarding Fig in general: On one hand, it's interesting to see the investment totals; on the other hand, there's nothing in-place to automatically collect the investments like there is with the crowdfunding money (via credit card payments), so the investments are way more in flux compared to the crowdfunding money.

I think I'd prefer the investments not count towards the total until the details and SEC decision are more concrete.

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