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greenfalcon

Psychonauts 2 Fig Tracking - Updated 9pm daily

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Hello everyone,

I built a google doc spreadsheets with forcasts + data from the campaign, it is just a quick snapshot of how daily totals are doing. I will update this once a day until the completion of the project. I don't have accurate data for the first few days as I wasn't tracking the funding progress as closely. As I mentioned, the first few days are not accurate, I believe the project already had 500k or so by midnight on the first day...

I try to snapshot the site at 9 or so pm every day so that is where these numbers come from.


Date                        Funded Daily               Total

12/3/2015                   $300,000?           $300,000?  *Project launched late afternoon on the 3rd.

12/4/2015                   $1,000,000?         $1,300,000?

12/5/2015                   $300,000?           $1,600,000?

12/6/2015                   $243,201            $1,843,201

12/7/2015                   $161,940            $2,005,141

12/8/2015                   $100,371            $2,105,512

12/9/2015                   $138,111            $2,243,623

12/10/2015                  $94,763             $2,338,386

12/11/2015                  $118,276            $2,456,662

12/12/2015                  $83,338             $2,540,000?

12/13/2015                  $76,530             $2,616,530

12/14/2015                  $53,662             $2,670,192

12/15/2015                  $58,233             $2,728,428

12/16/2015                  $26,143             $2,754,568

12/17/2015                  $31,170             $2,785,738

12/18/2015                  $25,553             $2,811,291

12/19/2015                  $18,505             $2,829,798

12/20/2015                  $11,038             $2,840,834

12/21/2015                  $18,987             $2,859,821

12/22/2015                  $42,035             $2,901,856

12/23/2015                  $25,461             $2,927,317

12/24/2015                  $26,811             $2,954,128

12/25/2015                  $21,180             $2,975,308

12/26/2015                  $15,373             $2,990,681

12/27/2015                  $11,760             $3,002,441

12/28/2015                  $18,055             $3,020,496

12/29/2015                  $32,596             $3,053,092

12/30/2015                  $28,048             $3,081,138

12/31/2015                  $18,916             $3,100,054

01/01/2016                  $24,667             $3,124,721

01/02/2016                  $18,472             $3,143,193

01/03/2016                  $36,295             $3,179,488

01/04/2016                  $36,484             $3,215,972

01/05/2016                  $45,640             $3,261,612

01/06/2016                  $86,302             $3,347,914 (GOAL REACHED)

01/07/2016                  $69,445             $3,417,359

01/08/2016                  $35,354             $3,452,713

01/09/2016                  $24,319             $3,477,032

01/10/2016                  $36,897             $3,513,929

01/11/2016                  $78,619             $3,592,548

01/12/2016                  $236,476            $3,829,024



Funding required per remaining day to reach goal: $0!!!!!!

* Updated daily at 9pm.

*My projected project campaign results (Merged with real data + projected) -- google spreadsheet - includes trends

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l4EsFF6to__8Cug5broZjLgOKDRokEqiHJyEqaCB9zI/edit?usp=sharing

*Original Campaign Daily progress on Kicktraq

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-adventure/#chart-daily

pubchart?oid=1848258349&format=image

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Nice work. Though I'm going to step out on a limb and say I think the final total will be around 4.5-5mil. I'm hoping the good efforts that DF are going to with social media will lead to a constant stream of new backers. And who knows, maybe this investor feature will break the mould of the typical crowd funded project.

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Nice! I've refined my graph a bit, now showing percentage-date since the first Saturday in GMT.

Updated 12/1 -> End of campaign

funding progress.png

578d00a60e05e_fundingprogress.png.cd979c

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I updated my post to include my actual google spreadsheet. Please note that I built this really quick and just for fun... It isn't using any models etc and really was just for me to track the results of the campaign.

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Nice work. Though I'm going to step out on a limb and say I think the final total will be around 4.5-5mil. I'm hoping the good efforts that DF are going to with social media will lead to a constant stream of new backers. And who knows, maybe this investor feature will break the mould of the typical crowd funded project.

I also think they have a really good chance of hitting that number or greater... My spreadsheet has daily totals dropping all the way down to 14k per day whereas the original doublefine kickstarter campaign hovered in the 20-30k range. I wanted to be conservative so I could sleep better at night. I also added a column for "Amount to raise on average per day to make goal". I will add that to the above post.

J

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Do remember it's very likely the cap will be hit for unaccredited investments soon, when making predictions

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Do remember it's very likely the cap will be hit for unaccredited investments soon, when making predictions

That's a big reason why I made my predictions so low... I predicted that the average daily increase would be around 14k... This was partially due to the cap on unaccredited investors.

Again, I just built this crappy little spreadsheet for fun.

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The average daily will be low. Then the last couple of days it will spike up again, its been like that on every single kickstarter ive ever supported.

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This is a thread of nerds! Awesome predictive math nerds!

I didn't use any math :( I confess, I am a Sudo nerd. I should be thrown out of the forums for my lack of effort.

P.S. I love the fact that you are online at 1am checking on "work", that's dedication!

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Hm... The trend isn't that good at the moment. Might be a christmas thing.

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What is this "Christmas" I keep hearing about, and why does it try to get in the way of Psychonauts 2!?

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Why isn't investments to psychonauts 2 a "good enough" present for my family and friends because they all tell me "you just want an excuse for higher backer rewards" silly family I know you all secretly want it

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I don't think it's that the trend isn't good at the moment, so much as it's been unusually good up until now. So far, the investments have been outpacing the reward backers by a little (about a week ago they were 100k behind, now they're over 100k ahead) and have proven to have a bit of a longer tail, and that's helped flatten the curve we'd expect to see.

Now we're seeing the usual crowdfunding fatigue and it probably doesn't help that we're approaching year end.

But let's not lose sight that we're still well above 2x the average amount needed daily, and every time we exceed that, the required amount goes down. We can quite comfortably trend all the way down to 22k per day, in other words. And that's not even taking into account the last-few-days of upswing that always happens with these crowdfunding projects, so actually it'd be perfectly okay for it to dip below 22k for a while.

Still, we should never make the mistake of thinking this is a done deal.

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Yes, I guess we're on track to meet the 100 % goal. But it would be nice to exceed that goal siginificantly. I hope they provide some good updates soon to attract more people.

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I think they are doing quite well, I am comparing how this is doing vs. the original campaign as provided in the link in this post. (I am adding it to my original as well). I think we are well above the average pledge as compared with the original campaign. DFA day 12-15 the average pledge total was in the 20's/30's. However, I am always nervous as Fig is a newer platform and fear a sharp drop any day. I do think that Doublefine has nailed the social aspects of the project and continue to keep the project from tailing off. It sure has been fun to watch. The trend today was great as we held steady with yesterday. I agree with KestrelPi that as long as we stay above the 21k figure the project will fund (this number has gone down 5k in the last few days! I am just hoping for an out of this world up-tick like DFA received during the first campaign so they can have some additional cash for development.

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-adventure/#chart-daily

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I remember reading an interview with Justin Bailey where he said they'd had offers for as much as $800k (I think) from investors for Outer Wilds but decided to cap investments at $100k or so. I'm not an expert, but I figure the reason for setting a cap is so that investors can expect a reasonable return on their investments, because sales will likely not scale proportionally with the amount of money invested. I don't think they've said anything about a specific amount they're looking to get from investors for this campaign, but I suppose there must be one? If they aren't going to put a cap on it anytime soon, I still think there's a good chance we might see a slight boost in investments after New Year's when companies typically have more wiggle room in their budgets. Like I said though: not an expert.

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It's still tracking pretty well at this point, and my gut feeling is that we aren't going to see a drastic drop. I wonder if there is any way that we can help spread the word and get people more excited about this as a community though. As happy as I will be to see a succesful campaign, I feel like this should for all intents and purposes be doing even better. Psychonauts is pretty widely beloved among gamers. Is the overlap between those fans and people who distrust crowdfunding so large now?

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Well, it's not THAT widely beloved. Most people who played it liked it a lot, sure, many loved it. But we're talking about less than 2 million people who bought it over 15 years (assuming there's overlap between the people who bought it first and second time around, and discounting piracy) which isn't a huge number, a very large number of whom did so as part of a bundle or sale and so may not have actually played it, and most of whom only got it on re-release and so probably don't think of it so much as a classic game as a game they recently played.

So it's still very much in the realms of cult classic.

I think the combination of crowdfunding fatigue, some suspicion of Double Fine from certain quarters, new and (relatively) untested platform, the fact more people worldwide have played a LucasArts adventure game than Psychinauts, can easily explain why we're probably looking at around 1/3 of the number of backers for this than backed DFA. I think it's going about as well as could be hoped for, honestly, but all the promotion efforts will help.

I also think the sharp drop is inevitable. It will have to happen when the million cap of unaccredited investments is hit, since it appears that that probably accounts for a good portion of the funding rate that has been enjoyed up until now. I'd guess at least a 3rd of it.

But I think we're in good shape for the end run.

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This seem really good, considering that the updates they have put in aren't exactly the ones that you could expect making the headlines on the gaming sites over and over again. I'm quite impressed by DF on how they handled social media and interviews, but if they want a spike on top of this, they have to make a splash with an update relatively soon. The Psychonauts retrospective doc was a really good one, but they need more I think, if they want some margin to the goal at the end.

I don't think the mad salesman style of Brian Fargo and inXile, where they throw in everything they can to try and create a buzz is a good one, especially if it doesn't seem to be neccessary to reach the goal, but something about the game at least. Concepts, art, presentations of the team. It all depends on what they actually have to show, but maybe getting Jack Black involved a bit more to say what he will actually do?

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Tim has been relatively quiet on Twitter lately. I think there's a good chance that they are cooking up a sizable update with some more specifics about Psychonauts 2 for the next week or so. Maybe some concept art and one of the world concepts. I think that could get another round of press and a burst of excitement.

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Tim has been relatively quiet on Twitter lately. I think there's a good chance that they are cooking up a sizable update with some more specifics about Psychonauts 2 for the next week or so. Maybe some concept art and one of the world concepts. I think that could get another round of press and a burst of excitement.

I hope so, the funding today is on track to be the lowest yet and may not even break the 21k number we need per day to fund the project. That number does not account for a projected increase at the end. I am also very impressed by how Doublefine has marketed this project but agree that they need to stay on top of it. I think KestrelPi is correct that the drop is inevitable and that the game really hasn't done "that well" over the course of the years. I think I own 4 copies myself... partly due to humble bundle. I wonder if the cap was hit... seems like a huge drop today.

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Tim mentioned on Twitter that there’s more stuff planned apart from what's already out there.

Worth remembering that we’re not even 2 weeks into the campaign yet. It’s moved very fast but there’s still a month to go and it’s a very tactical decision whether to work just with the social goals this month and then break out some fresh stuff during the final 2 week push.

My feeling is that if they have limited material, post new year is their best opportunity to do a big push, so they should probably focus on the existing Devs Play videos and community goals for now, and rekindle in the new year with stuff like the discussion/planning videos that they had for the DFA campaign. But I can see an argument for putting something else now, sure.

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It still has 11 hours (including the evening) to make 7000 to hit that goal for the day.

And I agree, they might want to push something small sometime soon, but hold onto any bigger announcements or information until after the holidays for a final push.

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I believe the cap for unaccredited investments has been hit. It's been sitting at 1434k since I checked hours ago. It would have moved by now, I'm pretty sure. That number gets updated instantly.

That means a little over 2/3 of the investment has been unaccredited so far, which means we can expect about 1/3 of the funding rate to disappear. Not clear to me whether this happened a day or two ago, or whether we'll be looking at a further dip.

The funding levels aren't concerning at all, but it's pretty possible that it'll be a slog rather than a race to the end.

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I think they raised the limit of unaccredited Investments:

At this time, we plan to hold reservations up to $1,400,000 from unaccredited investors, so you may not be able to invest the full amount of your reservation.

(From fig.co)

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That's good to know. Thanks. I can't actually see that any more since I already reserved mine, so it'd be good to know if that cap raises again.

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I'm considering raising mine. I got in on the early bird, but depending on how my budget shakes out and how much of a bump we ultimately need, I may bump it closer to a hundo.

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