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greenfalcon

Psychonauts 2 Fig Tracking - Updated 9pm daily

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I must admit I'm one of those people that have been waiting until after the holidays to pledge. Hopefully in the end it means I'll be able to spend a little more then I originally thought. Hopefully there's a lot of others like me still out there!

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I must admit I'm one of those people that have been waiting until after the holidays to pledge. Hopefully in the end it means I'll be able to spend a little more then I originally thought. Hopefully there's a lot of others like me still out there!

Awesome! Pledging for the documentary is worth it alone! The DFA documentary was amazing.

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Based on current projections, seems like 4M will be the number to beat. Looking forward to watching the finale unfold!

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I don't know why, but I'm still nervous. I want this to get funded so much...

Things are looking better and better every day :)

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I don't know why, but I'm still nervous. I want this to get funded so much...

If the high profile crowd funding projects on Kickstarter and Indiegogo are anything to go by, there will be a boost in pledges once the campaign deadline draws near.

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I don't know why, but I'm still nervous. I want this to get funded so much...

If the high profile crowd funding projects on Kickstarter and Indiegogo are anything to go by, there will be a boost in pledges once the campaign deadline draws near.

The best news is, if current rates stay the same until the end (which I doubt) they will still hit their goal. If you are correct and there is a bump at the end, DF could overshoot their goal by a good margin!

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Nice! I've refined my graph a bit, now showing percentage-date since the first Saturday in GMT.

Updated 30/12

Interesting how the funding curve seems to match the log curve... I wonder how many other crowd funding projects conform to this and if it could be used as an somewhat-accurate model for predicting the probability of success for a crowd funding venture (or at least helping the project managers decide if they should increase advertising, start celebrating early, or abandon all hope... those are all exaggerations, btw, but you get the point.)

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I think what we're seeing now is the tail end of the holiday slump, in combination with the very beginnings of the almost-hit-the-goal boost. So we're seeing better figures than we saw a week ago.

The best thing Double Fine could do next week, early if possible, is to release another video that gives us something more than what we've had already. Perhaps some non-spoilery concept art from the Psychonauts 2 art jam, perhaps a discussion between Tim and Eric on how to approach the writing for P2 in the same way there was a discussion between Tim and Ron about adventure games before DFA.

If they can announce anything concrete also, GREAT, but I can't think what that might be at this stage (playable Lili maybe?)

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Agreed, the sooner df can get some news out the faster the ramp up (my opinion) I have the end of campaign ramp up begin in 2 days... Really wondering if there is going to be a ramp up. Does fog have a "star project" feature or a "remind me 24 hours before project is closed feature? I don't remember seeing one and without it, I don't think there will be much of a bump.

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I think the end of campaign ramp up has a lot more to do with social media than email reminders, although you're right that it would be good if they existed. Hitting the goal (which I also think may happen in around a week even if nothing else happens) will also generate news etc, which generates a bump.

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The best thing Double Fine could do next week, early if possible, is to release another video that gives us something more than what we've had already. Perhaps some non-spoilery concept art from the Psychonauts 2 art jam, perhaps a discussion between Tim and Eric on how to approach the writing for P2 in the same way there was a discussion between Tim and Ron about adventure games before DFA.

If they can announce anything concrete also, GREAT, but I can't think what that might be at this stage (playable Lili maybe?)

A hint at something like that would be great. I realize they can't really commit to too many confirmed details this early in development, but a tease at some new ideas or concepts could be good for revitalizing some hype.

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When this hits 3.2 I might add some extras to my pledge. Especially because after consideration I don't think I will be investing (just too many tricky tax things I don't want to be concerned with from the UK)

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wow, huge bump today! DF is getting very close to needing < 100k to complete the initial goal!!! they could have it tomorrow.

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holly crap! Huge day, DF only needs 12+ k per day to hit their goal!!! YES

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Wonderful! I don't dare to look too closely at the ramp-up projections on the spreadsheet, they're too enticing. The way the Broken Age suddenly got 400% more on the 5th day to the end of the campaign than what it got the day before is pretty mindblowing, I'm guessing it must have been featured on the front page or e-mail reminders were sent that day (anyone remember?), so that's not something we'll necessarily see happening with Fig to that degree.

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Wonderful! I don't dare to look too closely at the ramp-up projections on the spreadsheet, they're too enticing. The way the Broken Age suddenly got 400% more on the 5th day to the end of the campaign than what it got the day before is pretty mindblowing, I'm guessing it must have been featured on the front page or e-mail reminders were sent that day (anyone remember?), so that's not something we'll necessarily see happening with Fig to that degree.

I agree, when I created the original projections it was based on the DFA results. I did base it off a smaller projection but not on hard data. I think DFA benifited from a lot of news and their announced live stream. I am looking forward to the next few days. My projections have been lower than actual numbers :)

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On the spreadsheet, the end-of-campaign ramp-up was from this day onwards. Seems like it started the day before.

Here's hoping it turns out that way. If so, my initial guess of 4.5-5M for the final amount would be about right. And I like being right. Especially about this.

When the project passes the threshold, it'll generate more media attention. It'll also happen at the right time; towards the end of the funding period, but with some days left. That should bring a nice boost to funding.

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I very much doubt that the bump will be anything like DFA for a couple of reasons. One is that I think the bump will mainly be for regular backers not investors, and they make up only half the total so far. Another is that DFA was pre-crowdfunding fatigue which while never as deadly as some people think is still a really thing: DFA is still something like the 9th most successful videogame crowd funding project ever and this wouldn't have beaten it without the investment component.

I predict about 3.5-3.7

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It's sooo close... I've added a Whispering Rock T-shirt to my pledge :)

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Hoping we might get a substantial update today, since it's the last week, but bear in mind the usual day for updates has been Tuesday. Also interesting to note that Tuesday has been associated with spikes in activity:

12/28/2015 $18,055 $3,020,496

12/29/2015 $32,596 $3,053,092

12/30/2015 $28,048 $3,081,138

12/21/2015 $18,987 $2,859,821

12/22/2015 $42,035 $2,901,856

12/23/2015 $25,461 $2,927,317

12/14/2015 $53,662 $2,670,192

12/15/2015 $58,233 $2,728,428

12/16/2015 $26,143 $2,754,568

Part of this may be that this is Spaff's day for adding the paypal pledges to the total, and perhaps updating the accredited investors too, but part of it is probably also to do with the increase in social media activity around those times.

What's interesting in the last couple of days is that we've seen a bump that isn't associated with an update.

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I've been playing around a bit with the projections spreadsheet and have found:

If you change the ramp up from 1.45 to 1.2 (which I think is more realistic for this project) then it comes in just under 3.7 million

No matter how you change the ramp up, unless funding slows significantly over this week, the project should successfully by the end of this working week. If the ramp up is stronger, probably Thursday, if it's weaker, maybe not until Friday.

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What's interesting in the last couple of days is that we've seen a bump that isn't associated with an update.

Ever since it surpassed 3 million and English language media started to report on it (Spanish media got there first, curiously enough!), it's picked up the pace quite a bit. It was rather pleasing to see, all that free advertising and it having an effect.

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Hoping we might get a substantial update today, since it's the last week, but bear in mind the usual day for updates has been Tuesday. Also interesting to note that Tuesday has been associated with spikes in activity:

12/28/2015 $18,055 $3,020,496

12/29/2015 $32,596 $3,053,092

12/30/2015 $28,048 $3,081,138

12/21/2015 $18,987 $2,859,821

12/22/2015 $42,035 $2,901,856

12/23/2015 $25,461 $2,927,317

12/14/2015 $53,662 $2,670,192

12/15/2015 $58,233 $2,728,428

12/16/2015 $26,143 $2,754,568

Part of this may be that this is Spaff's day for adding the paypal pledges to the total, and perhaps updating the accredited investors too, but part of it is probably also to do with the increase in social media activity around those times.

What's interesting in the last couple of days is that we've seen a bump that isn't associated with an update.

It will be nice timing too, because it'll be the last 100k to go.

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DF is down to their final 100k!!! Exciting stuff. Today has been another strong day.

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