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greenfalcon

Psychonauts 2 Fig Tracking - Updated 9pm daily

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I would argue that the hat is covering 99% of that guys head...
Well, to be exact (and annoying), by measurement it is covering 96.4% of his head. So... THE HAT IS A LIE!

Ah yes, horrible I know.

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Haha, I knew something was funny about that hat!

I have modified the spreadsheet according to KestrelPi's suggestion of lowering the ramp up to 20%. Today's stellar funding resulted in crazy projections while using 45% on the final two days... (projections of a 400k+ day and a 700k+ day). I think KestrelPi's number is much more realistic.

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I just noticed that change. Cool!

So, the current projection suggests we'll hit 100% tomorrow.

It's possible. Right now we're on 3,227 which is +12k on yesterday and with evening in Europe, Afternoon in East Coast USA and all of West Coast USA's day still to go. Historically I think the funding rate has accelerated as the day goes on, so I suspect we'll see a day a lot like yesterday, unless there's a significant update that changes this.

At this point in the day,around 35k seems plausible but the projected 42k might be a bit optimistic.

My GUESS is that it'll stay about 100% for a couple of days and the ramp up will kick off late wednesday/early thursday.

But I think the projection is definitely looking a lot more plausible now, and I wouldn't be shocked if it goes just about like what's on the graph now.

The other thing that could suddenly change things is if there is another large investment in the next couple of days. Failing that, my guess is that this gets to 100% on Thursday.

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I just noticed that change. Cool!

So, the current projection suggests we'll hit 100% tomorrow.

It's possible. Right now we're on 3,227 which is +12k on yesterday and with evening in Europe, Afternoon in East Coast USA and all of West Coast USA's day still to go. Historically I think the funding rate has accelerated as the day goes on, so I suspect we'll see a day a lot like yesterday, unless there's a significant update that changes this.

At this point in the day,around 35k seems plausible but the projected 42k might be a bit optimistic.

My GUESS is that it'll stay about 100% for a couple of days and the ramp up will kick off late wednesday/early thursday.

But I think the projection is definitely looking a lot more plausible now, and I wouldn't be shocked if it goes just about like what's on the graph now.

The other thing that could suddenly change things is if there is another large investment in the next couple of days. Failing that, my guess is that this gets to 100% on Thursday.

On the other hand, this is speeeding along right now. Since I posted this a couple of hours ago, it's jumped up to 2,239 which is +24. It doesn't seem at all inconceivable that it could do another 20k overnight which would make funding tomorrow quite likely, as projected!

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I think I may have been a little pre-mature with the end of campaign ramp up, we also don't have very much data on fig to see if it follows the similar model that kickstarer does. It should be interesting regardless. No matter what, the great news is it looks like thursday could be a big day!

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I plan on backing some amount at the end of the campaign. There are likely others who will do the same.

Smiles

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Well, today has been huge. It's just about matched the level of funding from the previous two days, and it has another few hours left to exceed them. I don't think it'll quite make the 1.2 ramp up projected, but it's exceeding what I expected today.

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I wonder if the Schaters are just frothing at the mouth knowing this will be fully funded in less than 2 days...

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Well, today has been huge. It's just about matched the level of funding from the previous two days, and it has another few hours left to exceed them. I don't think it'll quite make the 1.2 ramp up projected, but it's exceeding what I expected today.

Wow, unexpected... It looks like it is going to hit the projection! I didn't see that happening today.

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Not that I necessarily expect to make it over this last hump tonight but I keep refreshing every so often just in case.....

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Well, today has been huge. It's just about matched the level of funding from the previous two days, and it has another few hours left to exceed them. I don't think it'll quite make the 1.2 ramp up projected, but it's exceeding what I expected today.

Wow, unexpected... It looks like it is going to hit the projection! I didn't see that happening today.

We EXCEEDED today's projection!

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I wonder if the Schaters are just frothing at the mouth knowing this will be fully funded in less than 2 days...

I think even most of the Schaters begrudgingly love Psychonauts.. Heck, maybe their unwarranted anger towards other Double Fine games have just been because they couldn't stand to see DF making anything OTHER than the sequel they always wanted? :D

(Nah I'm kidding, they're all just politically-motivated gamergate jerkwads and they're probably all waiting around to make silly accusations regarding Psychonauts 2 development and the investing opportunities.)

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With the 5th's crazy increase the project may reach funding today! (Crossing fingers)

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Also as predicted, most of the ramp up is coming from regular backers, whose numbers seem to be levelling off with the investors again in the last couple of days. I would expect a very strong day today. A combination of end of campaign ramp up, expected updates and successful funding bump.

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I'm actually wondering now whether the unaccredited investment cap has been reached again, because I haven't seen the investments figure go up in a little while, and today's funding has been noticeably slower than yesterday.

I wonder if they'll extend the cap again. Our projections didn't account for the possibility that the funding level may suddenly get cut in half!

Still nothing to worry about but could mean the goal is hit tomorrow instead of today.

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It may have been reached again however, funding appears to be ripping again!

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Haha! This is exciting!

There are now just over 20,000 backers as well. I'm going to go ahead and assume that maybe they'll reach 100% this evening or later today, depending on where you are on the planet.

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I'm actually wondering now whether the unaccredited investment cap has been reached again, because I haven't seen the investments figure go up in a little while, and today's funding has been noticeably slower than yesterday.

I wonder if they'll extend the cap again. Our projections didn't account for the possibility that the funding level may suddenly get cut in half!

Still nothing to worry about but could mean the goal is hit tomorrow instead of today.

I think the legal cap for unaccredited investors is 1.5mil, however there are definitely some people (Notch specifically) who would qualify as actual investors.

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I'm actually wondering now whether the unaccredited investment cap has been reached again, because I haven't seen the investments figure go up in a little while, and today's funding has been noticeably slower than yesterday.

I wonder if they'll extend the cap again. Our projections didn't account for the possibility that the funding level may suddenly get cut in half!

Still nothing to worry about but could mean the goal is hit tomorrow instead of today.

I think the legal cap for unaccredited investors is 1.5mil, however there are definitely some people (Notch specifically) who would qualify as actual investors.

I didn't know there was a legal cap, but there was a self-enforced cap that started at 1m and then went to 1.4 after that was hit. I think it's the 1.4 that's been hit again.

However we seem to be well into the nearly-funded bump, now.

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I'm actually wondering now whether the unaccredited investment cap has been reached again, because I haven't seen the investments figure go up in a little while, and today's funding has been noticeably slower than yesterday.

I wonder if they'll extend the cap again. Our projections didn't account for the possibility that the funding level may suddenly get cut in half!

Still nothing to worry about but could mean the goal is hit tomorrow instead of today.

I think the legal cap for unaccredited investors is 1.5mil, however there are definitely some people (Notch specifically) who would qualify as actual investors.

I didn't know there was a legal cap, but there was a self-enforced cap that started at 1m and then went to 1.4 after that was hit. I think it's the 1.4 that's been hit again.

However we seem to be well into the nearly-funded bump, now.

My mistake, it's just their own limits.

sSzOBaR.png

Also I created this forum account just so I could follow this thread. Awesome work on the tracking, desperately hoping that this will be a great sequel.

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Thanks Thnift,

My wife just shakes her head at me... It may be due to the fact that I update her on funding progress every chance I get. It has been fun to keep track of the project. I will leave the google doc spreadsheet up once the campaign is over as well, no reason for me to take it down. There is a second sheet on the spreadsheet that shows my original projections without changes. The main spreadsheet has gone through a few revisions.

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Did the funding just go down a bit?

I just noticed the same thing... Went down a considerable amount.

Was reading through all the new comments on Fig since I last checked, and when I refreshed to check the new amount it went down.

Before refreshing

http://s14.postimg.org/umwa5ztxt/Screen_Shot_2016_01_06_at_14_52_55.png

After

http://s24.postimg.org/jzga24v1h/Screen_Shot_2016_01_06_at_14_52_52.png

Maybe this is a bug? Or an update to the investors?

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You know, I kind of wondered if some mean-spirited Schaters might put up a few big donations with the intent to cancel them as the campaign gets close, as some kind of dumb prank.

Or perhaps the opposite of that? Maybe there are supporters who went in for larger donation tiers than they necessarily wanted, just to support the campaign, and once they realized how certain it is to succeed they dropped down a tier or so?

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You know, I kind of wondered if some mean-spirited Schaters might put up a few big donations with the intent to cancel them as the campaign gets close, as some kind of dumb prank.

Or perhaps the opposite of that? Maybe there are supporters who went in for larger donation tiers than they necessarily wanted, just to support the campaign, and once they realized how certain it is to succeed they dropped down a tier or so?

Could be, I was kinda thinking about the first option. Would suck, but I'm sure there are enough people out there that would do that.

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Did the funding just go down a bit?

I just noticed the same thing... Went down a considerable amount.

Was reading through all the new comments on Fig since I last checked, and when I refreshed to check the new amount it went down.

Before refreshing

http://s14.postimg.org/umwa5ztxt/Screen_Shot_2016_01_06_at_14_52_55.png

After

http://s24.postimg.org/jzga24v1h/Screen_Shot_2016_01_06_at_14_52_52.png

Maybe this is a bug? Or an update to the investors?

The investments went down by 3K. It's been 1,685,000 all day and it dropped by about the same amount between your refreshes.

I imagine that either an accredited investors dropped out (as far as I can tell there's no way of withdrawing the reserved unaccredited shares, unless people asked for it manually)

So I don't think this is backer shenanigans, just some investment weirdness. Still generally on the rise but the hitting of the cap has had a noticeable effect on the speed. I'm not sure we'll hit 100% before tomorrow, now.

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