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DFAF Brackets Challenge 2017

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@Brütal Ke$hahas 560 pts with 320 PPR.  @Johrohas 520 pts with 800 PPR.  I finish with 500 pts.  @Bookdusthas 280 pts with 80 PPR.  

For 2nd Chance Bracket - @Johrohas 200 pts with 880 PPR.  @Brütal Ke$hahas 160 pts with 640 PPR.  I have 120 pts with 560 PPR.  

For Women's Bracket - I have 560 pts with 920 PPR.  @Brütal Ke$hahas 520 pts with 1000 PPR.  @Johrohas 380 pts with 200 PPR.  @Bookdusthas 220 pts with 80 PPR.  

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It's all(pretty much) going to come down to the Kansas/Oregon game tomorrow.  

If Kansas wins, only a Gonzaga championship could stop Ke$ha... and that isn't looking too likely right now.

If my math is right.

 

Edit:  Actually, no, there's one more scenario I missed.  Kansas going out in the final four, then Gonzagas would just have to make the final.  I wouldn't bet against Kansas right now though.  They're looking really good.

Edited by Johro

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What a crazy NCAA tournament so far.

I've been on vacation this week and the only NCAA games I've been able to watch all season, have been this week.  Florida has had the best two games I've seen this week.  Some classic NCAA moments there.  I really didn't think Oregon was going to finally show up against Kansas, yet they did.  I hope all the high-end play continues for the final four.

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With Kansas' loss to Oregon, Johro has won the Men's Tourney and 2nd Chance Brackets.

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Crazy.  Twice now(first bracket.  I think Epic won the 2nd chance last year).  I also beat the analytics bracket which will finish 40pts behind me, regardless.  Either it's dumb luck, or I'm better at analyzing numbers than some people whom do it for a living.  I'd vote dumb luck, otherwise I'll feel like I'm wasting my life in my current occupation.

That, and I had no idea which teams had stars or top draft rankings... and I probably would've done better at the women's if I realised the 4th year thing with the lack of draft...etc.  Live and learn.  This was a bad year for all of us in the men's bracket.  Not really proud of winning this one(outside of predicting a couple upsets).  It wasn't a good year for the DFAF men's brackets.

Edited by Johro

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A win is a win regardless, Johro so I tip my hat to you. How did you go about making your pics, or is it trade secrets? I thought you were in trouble because Gonzaga got out by the skin of their teeth in the second round or whatever that was.

Just intellectually I think the reason the NCAA is fun to watch is that it's not an exact science, it's Warhammer not chess. With single-game elimination and individual heroics playing a huge role in everything. The chance of anyone getting a perfect bracket is tiny so there's no reason not to be bold with your picks.

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Obviously besides completely one sided matches, I went about it looking for what is essentially a "will" stat.  Teams that can motivate themselves.  Comparing team to team, which teams run up scores or have the most close loses(again skill is a part of that, but finding teams that don't just give up when losing badly).  I looked mostly at points for and against and compared ratios.  It's not perfect.  Going by this idea, Wichita was the second best team in the league and even I had them going out in the final four.  Another idea I ran with, is that "defense wins championships" and that weighed heavy on my decisions too.  I wish I had a better idea of the skill disparity between the divisions so I could adjust accordingly instead of "winging it".

As you said though, there's no winning formula.  Everything goes out the window when the game starts.  A player could have the game of his life... or get injured.

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